Heat Pump Data
Evaluation Studies
Information and documents presented on this page are made available to the TECH Clean California Implementation team by Opinion Dynamics, the TECH initiative evaluator. For more information, please contact Ellen Steiner (esteiner@opiniondynamics.com)
LATEST PUBLICATION:
California Water Heater Market Characterization
October 21, 2024
The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) tasked Opinion Dynamics with conducting a market characterization study of the water heater market in California. To effectively utilize heat pump water heaters in meeting California's climate goals, it's crucial to have a comprehensive understanding of California’s current water heater market. Understanding the intricacies of the California water heating industry will help optimize decarbonization programs and expedite the adoption of this important technology. This study aims to help the CPUC gain a strategic understanding of the state’s water heater market, including business models, pricing strategies, hiring practices, contractor behaviors, and the current training landscape.
View all available evaluation studies below.
Market Evaluations
Residential Building Decarbonization: Technology and Policy Brief – March 2022
This report is the first in a series of briefs intended to summarize and synthesize market trends in California.
California Heat Pump Market Characterization & Baseline Study – May 2022
This study is intended to develop a market baseline of heat pump costs and a characterization of the California heat pump market. It also explores the opportunities and barriers of integrating heat pumps into new construction as well as best practices from mature programs.
TECH Baseline Market Assessment – July 2022
This report is a baseline assessment of the residential space- and water-heating retrofit market in California as it relates to heat pumps. It describes the market conditions in California before the TECH Initiative incentives began.
Customer Survey Results – November 2022
Opinion Dynamics has distributed surveys to single-family homeowners in two groups: one group representing a sample of the general public, and one group who received a TECH-incented heat pump on a biweekly basis. The purpose of these surveys is to understand decision-making and gauge satisfaction among TECH customers with contractor and installation. Results are summarized in the linked report.
TECH Clean California: Time 1 Market Assessment Final Report – May 2024
This report characterizes the conditions in the space- and water-heating markets for heat pumps in mid-2023, approximately a year and a half after the TECH Initiative launched. To assess the markets for space-conditioning and water-heating equipment, we surveyed a general population of homeowners in California as well as licensed HVAC and plumbing contractors who serve the California market.
California Water Heater Market Characterization – October 2024
This study aims to help the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) gain a strategic understanding of the state’s water heater market, including business models, pricing strategies, hiring practices, contractor behaviors, and the current training landscape.
Program Evaluations
TECH Evaluation Plan – February 2022
This report documents how Opinion Dynamics plans to evaluate TECH Clean California implementation and assess short-term and long-term market and program impacts.
Interim Process Evaluation – November 2022
This evaluation, conducted approximately eight months after TECH launched its incentives in 2021, assesses program design and implementation with a focus on contractor and customer experience, program operations, and whether activities have been implemented as intended. It also intends to identify opportunities for improvements and lessons learned to inform program scalability.
TECH Contractor Six-Month Post-Training Findings – February 2023
This memo presents findings from a post-training survey fielded approximately six months after contractors completed an NCI or EMH optional training through TECH.
Electrify My Home (EMH) Cohort Training Evaluation – May 2023
TECH contractors who participated in the program's three-day electrification introductory training implemented by Electrify My Home (EMH) were invited to participate in a Cohort Training Program to further their electrification knowledge. This report includes findings from Opinion Dynamics' evaluation of the cohort training, conducted with the goal to understand attendee's satisfaction with the training and its impact to their work and business.
Insights into Customer Experience and Satisfaction – September 2023
This study presents findings from a customer experience and satisfaction survey approximately six months after contractors completed the installation of heat pump HVAC and heat pump water heater units.
TECH Clean California Incremental Cost Study – February 2024
Opinion Dynamics conducted a research study to develop initial incremental cost estimates for residential single-family space conditioning heat pump and non-heat pump scenarios. With three phases, TECH Clean California conducted a rapid turnaround with Phase One, an HVAC contractor survey including cost quotes and bid packages. Providing six like-for-like replacement scenarios, the first phase of the study provided a better understanding of the costs of replacing various heating and cooling equipment to get a baseline. These scenarios assume no equipment relocation, no panel upgrades necessary, and no ductwork needed to be replaced. Read more to learn key insights and findings from the incremental cost study.
Evaluation of Technology and Equipment for Clean Heating (TECH) Initiative Final Workplan – March 2024
Building energy consumption is responsible for a quarter of California’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To address these emissions, the California Legislature passed Senate Bill (SB) 1477, which calls on the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to develop the Technology and Equipment for Clean Heating (TECH) Initiative.
Memo on Reduced TECH Incentive Applications in 2023 Compared to 2022: Contractor Interview Findings – May 2024
This report dives into the TECH Clean California incentive activity among contractors and consumers in 2023. With reduced incentive amounts, changes in the program were to be expected. However, these findings suggest that incentive amounts have not strongly influenced contractors' participation in TECH Clean California. For consumers, a mild climate and higher-than-normal inflation rates have driven the California population to be more cost conscious, resulting in a decline in incentive applications. Looking back at 2023 holistically, customers and contractors have demonstrated a strong and growing interest in heat pumps and awareness and knowledge about the equipment continues to spread.
TECH Clean California Engineering Desk Reviews – June 2024
This report summarizes the findings from engineering desk reviews conducted for a sample of TECH Clean California projects by Opinion Dynamics for the TECH Clean California program. This team completed 81 engineering desk reviews for a sample of incentivized HVAC heat pump and heat pump water heater projects; this document presents the methodology and results associated with our review.